Proposal to Increase Police Numbers to Reduce UAEs Juvenile Crime Rate

Abstract The cases of juvenile crimes have arisen so much in the UAE that it is now considered as a public crisis. Some of the causes for the rise in juvenile crime rates in the region include: parental neglect and drug abuse among other factors.Advertising We will write a custom proposal sample on Proposal to Increase Police Numbers to Reduce UAE’s Juvenile Crime Rate specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More The most effective way to deal with the problem is to increase the numbers of the police officers especially in the parts where the problem is most rampant. The proposed strategy is actually less expensive taking into account the damages caused by juvenile criminal activities. Introduction There has been a sharp rise in juvenile delinquency in the UAE in the last two decades. For instance, the juvenile crime rate rose by 33% in 2009 alone; the increase should be a great concern since most of the youths carry the crimes into ad ulthood. It is now evident that more young people than adults in the UAE are increasingly becoming violent and difficult to control (Abiad and Mansoor 303). Unfortunately, the juvenile justice system has been slow at responding, and the measures that it has put in place to deal with the problem are neither sufficient nor effective in dealing with the crisis (Abiad and Mansoor 304). Burfeind and Bartusch argue that more teenagers than adults commit serious violent offences (65). For that reason, the criminal justice system in the AUAE needs to divert its attention to the juveniles more than it does with the adults. The best way to deal with the juvenile delinquency problem is hiring more police officers, who should be allowed to arrest and arraign the young people who commit violent crimes in adult courts (Siegel and Wesh 307). This paper proposes employment of more police officers to help deal with the problem of the rise in juvenile crimes in the UAE. Methodology Based on scholarly evidence, this paper proposes increasing police number in the UAE to assist in reducing the juvenile crime rate in the region. The effectiveness of the policing strategy in reducing juvenile crime rate is a topic that has been discussed by many scholars; it is available in several literatures, including peer-reviewed studies.Advertising Looking for proposal on public administration? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More Consequently, this proposal will rely on literature review to obtain the relevant information about the topic. Several literatures will be evaluated to ensure that the data obtained is reliable and valid. The fact that there are several scholars who have addressed the problem shows that there is sufficient information about the problem. The information obtained in the literature review will be used to outline the causes of the rise in juvenile crime rates, the most effective strategy that can help the government to deal with the problem, the importance of using the proposed strategy, and the consequences of not implementing it. Discussion Causes of Rise in Juvenile Crime Rate in the UAE There are several factors that have led to the increased juvenile crime rates in the UAE. Firstly, most of the juveniles commit criminal activities as a result of lower intelligence, which is worsened by lack of a proper education (Abiad and Mansoor 304). The young people who are both unintelligent and uneducated get involved in anti-social activities as a result of uncontrolled aggressive and impulsive behavior. These kinds of young people are also unable to delay gratification, which motivates them to get involved in illegal activities just to get what they want in life (Siegel 240). Secondly, many young people in the UAE have turned to abusing drugs, which makes them vulnerable to committing criminal offences even without their knowledge. Most juvenile offenders in the UAE use very powerful drugs such as coc aine and bhang. Researchers reveal that the use of illegal drugs is the most serious cause of the rise in juvenile delinquency in the UAE; for instance, Siegel and Wesh argue that a big number of juveniles who use alcohol often fall victim to juvenile crime (308). Thirdly, most families have neglected their children and they don’t care about their children’s behavior or the groups they associate with. The lack of good parental care, child abuse and constant parental conflicts are also other factors that push the juveniles to engage in criminal activities. Some of the juveniles also engage in criminal offences as a result of their parent’s lack of social norms and defiance of the main laws (Siegel 241).Advertising We will write a custom proposal sample on Proposal to Increase Police Numbers to Reduce UAE’s Juvenile Crime Rate specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More Lastly, the UAE police service has for a long time overlooked the juvenile crimes; sometimes they regard the crimes as negligible. The police service has constantly directed most of its efforts to dealing with adult crimes (Siegel 241). The young people have taken advantage of the police’s assumption to commit criminal offences as much as they please (Siegel and Wesh 307). How to Deal with the Rise in Juvenile Crime Rate in the UAE Although there could be other strategies of dealing with the rise in juvenile crime rate in the UAE, the most effective one would be to hire more police officers. The extra police officers could be used to create a special branch in the police service whose mandate will be purely be to deal with the case of juvenile offenders (Siegel 243). The implementation of the proposed strategy will cost the UAE government a significant amount of money. The implementation involves hiring more police officers, training the hired recruits, and providing them with the necessary equipment to enable them carr y out their duty. The implementation expenses will also require the government to avail other funds, which will be used to pay the officers’ salaries and to build residential houses for them. The implementation process is likely to cost the government of the UAE a total sum of $8 million. The total amount will include: $1 million that will be used to pay the officers who will be carrying out the recruitment, $1.5 million for training the recruited individuals, $3.5 million that will be used to pay the salaries of the newly employed police officers, and $2 million that will be used to build residential houses for the new officers. Summary of the Budget Description Estimated Amount in 000,000$ Wages of Hiring Officers 1 Training the Recruits 1.5 Salaries for New Officers 3.5 Building new houses 2 Total 8 Importance of Implementing the Proposed Strategy The benefits that will come with the implementation of the proposed strategy surpass the costs that will be inc urred during the implementation process. The destruction that the juveniles cause in the region through their involvement in criminal activities is just too much and cannot be compared to the implementation cost (Burfeind and Bartusch 66).Advertising Looking for proposal on public administration? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More The setting of the special branch will certainly improve the police’s functions in relation to juvenile cases. The proposed strategy will enhance the way police officers are expected to do patrols, investigations and other special operations (Elrod and Ryder 155). Police patrol is one of the main strategies that law enforcement uses to control crime in the UAE. When more police officers are employed and the extra number assigned to look into the juvenile issues, they will help in making the patrol more effective. Since most juveniles are neither stubborn nor repeat offenders, putting more police officers on patrol is likely to deter them from engaging in criminal offences such break and enter. In addition, the more the police numbers on patrol, the more arrests that will be made; consequently, more juvenile offenders will be arraigned in the UAE courts (Siegel 240). The employment of extra police officers is also expected to see more intense investigation and rehabilitation o f the young offenders. The increase in juvenile crime rates to an extent has been caused by slow investigation due to the lack of enough detectives. When police numbers are increased in the region, there will enough detectives to speed up the investigations involving juvenile cases (Elrod and Ryder 155). The extra police officers could also offer other special programs such as rehabilitation to less serious juvenile crimes. Such special programs are known to reduce juvenile crime rates, especially those that are caused by the lack of good parental care (Elrod and Ryder 156). Conclusion The ever rising cases of juvenile crimes in the UAE region are now a great concern for the UAE government. The rise in juvenile crime rates in the region has been caused by among other factors, parental neglect, family conflicts and child abuse, drug abuse and lack of a good education. However, the problem can be effectively dealt with by increasing the number of police officers. The implementation of the proposed strategy is actually less expensive when compared to the damages caused by the juvenile’s involvement in criminal activities. The proposed program will cost the government close to $8 million. Works Cited Abiad, Nisrine, and Farkhanda Zia Mansoor. Criminal Law and the Rights of the Child in Muslim States: A Comparative and Analytical Perspective. London: British Institute of International and Comparative Law, 2010. Print. Burfeind, James W., and Dawn Jeglum Bartusch. Juvenile Delinquency: An Integrated Approach. Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers, 2011. Print. Elrod, Preston, and Scott Ryder. Juvenile Justice: A Social, Historical, and Legal Perspective. Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers, 2011. Print. Siegel, Larry. Introduction to Criminal Justice. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth, 2010. Print. Siegel, Larry, and Brandon Wesh. Juvenile Delinquency: The Core. Belmont, CA: Cengage Learning, 2011. Print. This proposal on Proposal to Increase Police Numbers to Reduce UAE’s Juvenile Crime Rate was written and submitted by user Johnathan Knight to help you with your own studies. You are free to use it for research and reference purposes in order to write your own paper; however, you must cite it accordingly. You can donate your paper here.

Biography of Jose Maria Morelos, Mexican Revolutionary

Biography of Jose Maria Morelos, Mexican Revolutionary Josà © Marà ­a Morelos (September 30, 1765–December 22, 1815) was a Mexican priest and revolutionary. He was in overall military command of Mexico’s Independence movement in 1811-1815 before the Spanish captured, tried, and executed him. He is considered one of the greatest heroes of Mexico and countless things are named after him, including the Mexican state of Morelos and the city of Morelia. Fast Facts: Jose Maria Morelos Known For: Priest and rebel leader in the war for Mexican independenceAlso Known As: Josà © Marà ­a Teclo Morelos Pà ©rez y Pavà ³nBorn: September 30, 1765 in Valladolid,  Michoacn,  New SpainParents: Josà © Manuel Morelos y Robles, Juana Marà ­a Guadalupe Pà ©rez Pavà ³nDied: December 22, 1815  in San Cristà ³bal Ecatepec,  State of Mà ©xicoEducation: Colegio de San Nicols Obispo in Valladolid, Seminario Tridentino in Valladolid, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicols de HidalgoAwards and Honors:  The Mexican state of  Morelos  and city of  Morelia  are named after him, and his picture is on the 50-peso noteSpouse: Brà ­gida Almonte (mistress; Morelos was a priest and could not marry)Children: Juan Nepomuceno AlmonteNotable Quote: May slavery be banished forever together with the distinction between castes, all remaining equal, so Americans may only be distinguished by vice or virtue. Early Life Josà © Marà ­a was born into a lower-class family (his father was a carpenter) in the city of Valladolid in 1765. He worked as a farm hand, muleteer, and menial laborer until entering the seminary. The director of his school was none other than Miguel Hidalgo (leader of the Mexican revolution) who must have left an impression on the young Morelos. He was ordained as a priest in 1797 and served in the towns of Churumuco and Carcuaro. His career as a priest was solid and he enjoyed the favor of his superiors. Unlike Hidalgo, he showed no propensity for dangerous thoughts before the revolution of 1810. Morelos and Hidalgo On September 16, 1810, Hidalgo issued the famous Cry of Dolores to kick off Mexicos struggle for independence. Hidalgo was soon joined by others, including former royal officer Ignacio Allende, and together they raised an army of liberation. Morelos made his way to the rebel army and met with Hidalgo, who made him a lieutenant and ordered him to raise an army in the south and march on Acapulco. They went their separate ways after the meeting. Hidalgo would get close to Mexico City but was eventually defeated at the Battle of Calderon Bridge, captured shortly thereafter, and executed for treason. Morelos, however, was just getting started. Morelos Takes up Arms Ever the proper priest, Morelos coolly informed his superiors that he was joining the rebellion so that they could appoint a replacement. He began rounding up men and marching west. Unlike Hidalgo, Morelos preferred a small, well-armed, well-disciplined army that could move fast and strike without warning. He would often reject recruits who worked the fields, telling them instead to raise food to feed the army in the days to come. By November, he had an army of 2,000 men and on November 12, he occupied the medium-sized town of Aguacatillo, near Acapulco. Morelos in 1811-1812 Morelos was crushed to learn of the capture of Hidalgo and Allende in early 1811. Still, he fought on, laying an abortive siege to Acapulco before taking the city of Oaxaca in December of 1812. Meanwhile, politics had entered the struggle for Mexican independence in the form of a Congress presided over by Ignacio Là ³pez Rayà ³n, once a member of Hidalgos inner circle. Morelos was often in the field but always had representatives at the meetings of Congress, where they pushed on his behalf for formal independence, equal rights for all Mexicans, and continued privilege of the Catholic Church in Mexican affairs. The Spanish Strike Back By 1813, the Spanish had finally organized a response to the Mexican insurgents. Felix Calleja, the general who had defeated Hidalgo at the Battle of Calderon Bridge, was made Viceroy, and he pursued an aggressive strategy of quashing the rebellion. He divided and conquered the pockets of resistance in the north before turning his attention to Morelos and the south. Celleja moved into the south in force, capturing towns and executing prisoners. In December of 1813, the insurgents lost a key battle at Valladolid and were put on the defensive. Morelos’ Beliefs Morelos felt a true connection to his people, and they loved him for it. He fought to remove all class and race distinctions. He was one of the first true Mexican nationalists and he had a vision of a unified, free Mexico, whereas many of his contemporaries had closer allegiances to cities or regions. He differed from Hidalgo in many key ways: he did not allow churches or the homes of allies to be looted and actively sought support among Mexico’s wealthy Creole upper class. Ever the priest, he believed it was God’s will that Mexico should be a free, sovereign nation: the revolution became almost a holy war for him. Death By early 1814, the rebels were on the run. Morelos was an inspired guerrilla commander, but the Spanish had him outnumbered and outgunned. The insurgent Mexican Congress was constantly moving, trying to stay one step ahead of the Spanish. In November of 1815, the Congress was on the move again and Morelos was assigned to escort it. The Spanish caught them at Tezmalaca and a battle ensued. Morelos bravely held off the Spanish while the Congress escaped, but he was captured during the fighting. He was sent to Mexico City in chains. There, he was tried, excommunicated, and executed on December 22. Legacy Morelos was the right man at the right time. Hidalgo started the revolution, but his animosity toward the upper classes and his refusal to rein in the rabble that made up his army eventually caused more problems than they solved. Morelos, on the other hand, was a true man of the people, charismatic and devout. He had a more constructive vision than Hidalgo and exuded a palpable belief in a better tomorrow with equality for all Mexicans. Morelos was an interesting mixture of the best characteristics of Hidalgo and Allende and was the perfect man to carry the torch they had dropped. Like Hidalgo, he was very charismatic and emotional, and like Allende, he preferred a small, well-trained army over a massive, angry horde. He notched up several key victories and ensured that the revolution would live on with or without him. After his capture and execution, two of his lieutenants, Vicente Guerrero and Guadalupe Victoria, carried on the fight. Morelos is greatly honored today in Mexico. The state of Morelos and city of Morelia are named after him, as are a major stadium, countless streets and parks, and even a couple of communications satellites. His image has appeared on several bills and coins throughout Mexicos history. His remains are interred at the Column of Independence in Mexico City, along with other national heroes. Sources Estrada Michel, Rafael. Josà © Marà ­a Morelos. Mexico City: Planeta Mexicana, 2004Harvey, Robert. Liberators: Latin Americas Struggle for Independence. Woodstock: The Overlook Press, 2000.Lynch, John. The Spanish American Revolutions 1808-1826. New York: W. W. Norton Company, 1986.

Training skill Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Training skill - Assignment Example On the contrary as much as the leader is perceived as the person who is well informed there is always room to learn (Bowell, Pamela & Brian, 20). The second role of a trainer requires an individual to portray confidence in what is presented to the trainees. The most significant trait is always believing in one self and the individuals in training. It follows through that communication plays a vital role is to ensure there is a clear path followed towards achieving the goals that have been set. Proper instructions lead to proper execution of tasks (Bowell et al, 22). The two roles am prepared to participate in relate to each other in such a way that communication skills is imperative. These roles can apply in a job situation, family and the community in general. Both roles require an individual to possess the ability to give instructions that do not always receive negative critic from those who receive it, by giving them a chance to participate in decision making. Standing firm by the words uttered is imperative to these roles because, they determine whether an individual will have the ability to command a given segment of individuals or not. Furthermore, a situation is controlled by an individual’s ability to master it (Bowell et al,

Changes Brought by Occupiers Liability Act to the Common Law Essay

Changes Brought by Occupiers Liability Act to the Common Law - Essay Example The common law of negligence initially applied in cases relating to those who suffered damages while in one’s premise. However, this was to the extent that the claimant proved that a duty of care was owed to him or her under the common law of negligence. However, the common law of negligence had inconsistencies owing to differences in court rulings under the similar set of facts. It also proved less relaxed in holding the owners of premises liable, often for lack of duty of care, more so to visitors and trespassers. These formed the foundation of a legislative intervention The Occupiers liability Acts being enacted. As of now, the law concerning such liability in the United Kingdoms is mostly found in the Occupiers Liability Act 1957 (regarding visitors) while that regarding the non-visitors is largely found Occupiers Liability Act 1984. In as much as the law to a large extent codified common law, the cases have to be relied upon in determining the meaning of â€Å"occupierâ €  and the line between a â€Å"visitor† and a â€Å"trespasser† or a non visitor. According to the Occupiers Liability Act 1957 the occupier only owes a duty of care to the lawful visitors. This duty is similarly owed to the lawfully visitors either to or to on the premise. It is worth noting that the occupiers rather than the owners of the premise retain the liability to compensate the victims injured on the premises as a result of their dangerous state. Sufficient or effective degree of control is used to determine the occupation of the premise. For that reason, one must not necessarily need to be the actual owner of a premise for him or her to be considered the occupier. He may owe the duty if he exercises a substantial extent of control in which case he owes this duty to all lawful visitors with the only exceptions specified in the agreement. The Occupiers’ Liability Act 1984 does not imposes this duty of care on the occupier towards the visitors of the premises; rather it is towards the non visitors, essentially understood as a trespasser. A trespasser for that matter is anybody who goes into the land in another person’s possession intentionally without obtaining a lawful authorization. Taking an example of a theatre, any member of the public who happens to be admitted there is a visitor and the occupier of the theatre owes them a duty of care. The theatre ticket they are issued with serves a license which bears with it an agreement not to be revoked till the end of the performance. As such this is a sufficient authorization (Hurst v Picture Theatres Ltd (1915) 1 KB 1 CA). The extent of liability was traditionally based on whether or not one was a visitor. The question asked then is, who is a visitor? Generally speaking, at common law it was important to know the difference between licensees, invitees and the premise

National Express rejects takeover bid from First Group (Financial Research Proposal

National Express rejects takeover bid from First Group (Financial Times, 29 June 2009) - Research Proposal Example 1.2 billion pounds to banks (Gill, 2009, p 1). The United Kingdom government has also complicated National Express financial woes by the government refusal to renegotiate the conditions for its East Coast rail franchise with the transport business. The hard-line position adopted by the government is attributed to East Coast rail franchise being the most lucrative in the United Kingdom serving the United Kingdom commercial hubs such as Edinburg and London. Besides, citing the government role in its financial crisis, National Express board also cited its quest to solve the ?1.2 billion debt as its first priority before reconsidering the bailout from FirstGroup limited. In, addition, National Express board viewed FirstGroup as their rival in the transport business and thus postulated a sellout of the company to FirstGroup as surrender to a business enemy. National Express boards were thus eager to retain the legacy of their company’s in the transport industry (Miller, 2011, p 85) . Despite, the rejection of FirstGroup offer, acquisition and acquisition provide the best bailout opportunity and option to rescue National Express from the current financial hardships. This research thus draws on the case sturdy of National Express and FirstGroup to rationalize on the best solution to solve a corporate organization financial solution. This involves an analogy acquisition and acquisition as a financial solution with other financial crisis solution mechanisms recommended in fiance and accounting. The research establishes higher financial crisis solution rationality from acquisition and acquisition formulated financial solution compared to other possible and readily available financial and accounting options. Literature Review An acquisition mimics government bailout to corporations during financial crisis. The similarity between acquisitions and acquisition is evident in the supply of a large amount of money to the corporation under financial crisis, which is subseq uently used to pay its bankruptcy threatening debts. These facts are manifest in the proposed acquisition between National Express and FirstGroup, whereby Nation Express was offered a large sum of money by FirstGroup to pay its 1.2 billion debts. The ?1.2 billion proposed buyout of National Express is comparative to the government’s financial bailout to financial corporation during the 2007-2008 global financial crises (Milmo, 2009, p 1). In United States, the government acquisition styled bailout totaled $13.9 trillion leading the government bailout to be considered as more of an acquisition buyout of the financial stricken institutions than a rescue bailout package (Birdsall & Fukuyama, 2011, p 31). Acquisitions and acquisition of financial stricken corporations is also licked to the nationalization of finically poor performing or financially endangered businesses by the government (Finkelstein & Cooper, 2010, p 116). The same financial crisis incident illustrates the role of nationalization which mimics acquisition and acquisitions in the rescue of financial institutions from bankruptcy during economic downturns. A typical example of this financial rescue strategy is illustrated by the nationalization of the Northern Rock Bank in the United Kingdom at the verge of its bankruptcy during the financial crises. The Northern Rock Bank case also illustrates the irrationality of the hard-line position by a corporation board or the corporate organization stakeholders,

Federalism uneven regional Development

Federalism uneven regional Development The pursuit to bring together both the goals of regional and national development in multinational countries gave rise to federalism. This is used to describe a system of government in which the sovereignty is constitutionally divided between a central governing authority and constituent political units like states or provinces. A federal entity is characterised by harmony, conflict, satisfaction and dissatisfaction. (Pritam) Regional development is the provision of aid and other assistance to regions which are facilitated by the national pattern of development. It is likely to lead to a successful and strengthened federation and at the other end, will cause the federation strain in the neglect of a region or a region being sacrificed for the sake of national development. This according to pritam, is as a result of the necessity to centralise control over the utilisation of resources or because of the necessity to transfer resources from one region to the other. (Schoenfield et al cited in Pritam Federalism and development attracts more scholarly attention where federations fail or are in crisis than when they are successful (pritam page 1). Federations as it is, represents some of the largest national entities in the world which includes countries like india, china, Mexico, Brazil, Canada, Great Britain, France, Italy, United states, Argentina, Germany, Venezuela, Pakistanm, South Africa and Nigeria. Pre-second world war federations like USA, Australia, Canada, and Switzerland have been noted as cases of successful federal entities despite Canada having some crisis in its Quebec region. (PRITAM PAGE 2). Contrary to this, some failed federal entities include Pakistan, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia; Ethiopia has been split into independent nation states (pritam page 2). Other federal entities such as Nigeria and sudan in Africa, india and Sri Lanka in Asia, spain in Europe have felt a high level of tension in theor federal political arrangement(birch 1989, pritam pg 2) Instances of lessening regional inequality and stressing regional inequality have acted as a medium for regions to feel dissatisfied with federal arrangements (pritam pg 2). A situation whereby regional inequalities are accompanied by conflicts of ethnicity and nationalism, the relationship of a region to the federal centre becomes more conflict ridden.(pritam pg2). The most likely cases of regional conflict with the federal centre are likely to be those where the regions because of its relative economic backwardness, feels dissatisfied with prevailing structure of the economic relations with the centre.(pritam pg 2) Uneven regional development is a universal phenomenon with its presence found in almost all large countries, be it a developing or developed country. The problem of regional inequality that results from uneven development is of interest for a variety of reasons. First, the issue of regional disparity is a problem of economic growth. If all regions had grown at the same pace, there would be no income differences between regions in the first place. Even if regional gaps exist, as long as poor regions are able to grow faster than rich ones, the former would converge with the latter and the initial differences would thereby disappear in due course. To find the root causes of regional inequality, we have to trace the long term growth paths of different regions in the national economy and to understand the dynamics of regional growth. Second, regional disparity is an ethical issue. Less the process of economic development is intrinsically even, society is always confronted with the fundamental contradiction between ethically motivated efforts to establish socio economic parity in space and the economically more advantageous strategy of letting inequality increase, as long as it makes the whole economy grow faster. No one denies the importance of attaining a high overall growth rate, but the question being posed is; who benefits from the rapid economic growth? Both economic growth and fairness in the distribution of income are desirable. Unfortunately, the two goals are often in conflict with each other. The maximisation of growth could worsen the problem of inequality, whereas the pursuit of equality may slow down national growth. A development strategy should not concern itself simply with the maximisation of one objective at the expense of the other; it has to consider the trade off between them. On another note, regional disparity is an issue of political significance because regional economic disparities may have adverse effects on the political stability and unity of the nation. The relationship between inequality and political instability is a close one. In countless instances, real and perceived imequities give rise to political conflicts. Inter regional inequality could be a source of political conflict, just as inequalities between groups are. Residents of one region tends to care more about the welfare of other residents than about the welfare of the inhabitanrs of other regions. As a result, there tends to be a widespread sense of grievence among the people living in regions where average incomes are nocticeably lower than in other regions of the country, or the incomes are growing noticeably slower. They may regard an insufficiently sympathetic central government as partly responsible for their plight. Meanwhile, those living in more developed regions are likely to perceive that their economies are the backbone of the nation. If the central government intervenes to corrct regional disparites in such a way that the high income regions have to subsidise the poor one, then these regions are likely to believe that such fiscal transfers to low growth regions ae just a waste of money because in their view, trying to sustain inefficient economic activity is irrational. Thus any attempt to redistribute resources across regions is likely to provoke resistance from rich regions. Thus persistence regional disparities may not only frustrate people living in impoverished regions but also alienate those living in affluent regions. History suggests that when regional disparities becomes excessive, it could lead to massive political consequences especially when ethnic, religious, language differences are combined with ethnic disparities. Examples of such include Biafra in Nigeria, Punjab in India, Wales and Northern Ireland in Great Britain. NIGERIA AS CASE STUDY WITH REFERENCE TO NIGER DELTA REGION Nigeria is the most populous African country with a population of 154 million people who account for 47% of West Africas population and nearly a fifth of sub-Saharan Africas population. Nigeria is Africas largest oil producing country, and it is the eleventh largest producer and the eight largest exporter of crude oil in the world. In 2006, Nigerian oil production averaged approximately 2.45 million barrels of oil per day (World Bank, 2011) Oil has been the dominant factor in Nigerias economy for the past 50 years. In 2007 over 87% of government revenues, 90% of foreign exchange earnings, 96% of export revenues, and almost half of GDP was accounted for by oil (Watts 2008:43). Despite its vast resources however, Nigeria has been a disastrous development experience, and Nigerias performance since independence has been dismal at best. Today, out of a population of 140 million, approximately 70 million people live on less than $1/day, 54% of Nigerians live below the poverty line, over 1/3 live in extreme poverty, 1one in five children die before the age of five, 3 million people are living with HIV/AIDS, and 7 million children are not attending school (Higgins 2009). In an attempt to gain access to the allocation of oil revenues, each ethnic group in Nigeria had to seek its own state or local government council. This is why Nigeria, which originally had only 4 regions and 50 local governments, now has 36 states and 774 loca l governments. According to the United Nations Development Program, Nigeria ranks in terms of the Human Development Index (HDI) a composite measure of life expectancy, income, and educational attainment number 158 out of 177 countries, below Haiti and Congo; over the last 30 years the trend line of the HDI has been upward but barely (UNDP, 2006a). Nigeria also appears close to the top of virtually everyones global ranking of corruption, business risk, lack of transparency, fraud, and illicit activity; Nigerian fraud even has its own FBI website. According to former World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz, at least $100 billion of the $600 billion in oil revenues accrued since 1960 have simply gone missing. Nigerian anti-corruption chairman noted that 70% of the countrys oil wealth was stolen or wasted; by 2005 it was only 40%, and by most conservative estimates, almost 130 billion was lost between 1970 and 1996. After the discovery of oil in Mongolia, a local leader announced: We do not want to become another Nigeria (Watts 2008:43-44). This rise in oil wealth has not translated into significant increases in living standards in Nigeria, however. In fact, the rise in poverty and inequality coincides with the discovery and export of oil in Nigeria. As Sala-i-Martin and Subramanian (2003:4) show, in 1965, when oil revenue was about US$33 per capita, GDP per capita was US$245. In 2000, when oil revenues were US$325 per capita, GDP per capita was stalled at the 1965 level. Evidence such as this has led to widespread acceptance that Nigeria has suffered from the resource curse and according to Sala-i-Martin and Subramanian (2003:24), waste and poor institutional quality stemming from oil has been primarily responsible for Nigerias poor long-run economic performance. The Niger Delta region is the area covered by the natural delta of the Niger River and the areas to the east and west. The Niger Delta consists of 9 of the 36 states in Nigeria, 185 local governments (UNDP, 2006: 44)occupying about 12% of Nigerias territory (Figure 2).These states include Abia, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Imo, Ondo and Rivers state. The Niger Delta is a region that has been somewhat marginalized from Nigerias national development despite being the region that generates Nigerias oil wealth (Higgins 2009:1). The oil boom in Nigeria has been driven by oil extracted from the Niger Delta region. Oil wealth, from the Niger Delta region, is largely responsible for sustaining the Nigerian Federation (UNDP, 2006: 62). Despite fuelling much of Nigerias economic growth, the Niger Delta is somewhat marginalised from Nigerias national development. Higgins writes that, Essentially there is a significant disconnect between the wealth the region generates for the Nigerian Federation and the transnational oil companies extracting oil from the region, and the regions human development progress (Higgins 2009:3). The regions human development index is 0.564 and while this is slightly higher than the Nigerian HDI of 0.448, the area rates far below regions or countries with similar gas or oil reserves (Venezuela is 0.772 and Indonesia is 0.697) (UNDP, 2006: 15). Table 5 shows incidence of poverty in the Niger Delta from 1980-2004, and according to Higgins, Analysis of poverty and human development indicator s paints a dismal picture for the Niger Delta. Poverty incidence increased in the Niger Delta between 1980 and 2004 as Table [5] shows (Higgins 2009:3) As well, when further disaggregated to the local government level, the Niger Delta Human Development Report shows that state and regional HDI scores mask inequalities in human development among oil producing communities. Significantly, local government areas without oil facilities appear to have fewer poor people than those with oil facilities (UNDP, 2006: 15). The report also concludes that decline in the HDI has been steeper for the Niger Delta states than the rest of Nigeria (UNDP, 2006: 137). In addition, the high earnings of some oil industry workers leads to localised price distortions, driving up prices and so constraining the purchasing power of ordinary people and making it difficult for many to meet the costs of basic needs such as housing, healthcare, transportation, education and good and making poverty more pervasive tha n conventional measures reveal (UNDP, 2006: 57). CONSEQUENCES 1. Social and political exclusion: The two post-military national elections (1999 and 2003) are widely agreed to have been extensively rigged in the Niger Delta states, with fraudulent results sustained by violence and threat and so leaving a serious democratic deficit. The political process is held in complete mistrust and considered exclusionary and corrupt. Formal institutions have failed and local customary institutions have become eroded. Youth have turned to violence and militancy to challenge the government and extort oil from oil companies (World Bank, 2007b). 2. Economic exclusion: Despite substantial resource flows to the State government, and significant natural resource endowments the people of the Niger Delta are destitute. The panel described the Niger Delta as an iconic representation of destitution amongst the possibility of wealth. The people of the Niger Delta feel excluded from the wealth generated by their resource rich region substantiated by the region having the highest rate of unemployment in Nigeria (World Bank, 2007b). Remote rural communities have very limited economic opportunities and often cannot tap directly into the employment. benefits of the oil industry because they lack capital resources or skills (UNDP, 2006:17). 3. Poor governance and corruption: Corruption, especially at the state and local level, is endemic and at the root of many of the regions problems. Large sums are received at both the state and local level, but there is little evidence of this being applied to productive development endeavours. This situation exacerbates the sense of hopelessness, exclusion and anger of the citizenry of the Niger Delta, who have lost faith in existing governance structures (World Bank, 2007b). 4. Poor infrastructure and public service delivery: The panel (World Bank, 2007b) describes the current situation as akin to a human emergency and UNDP describes infrastructure and social services as generally deplorable (UNDP, 2006: 15). The general neglect of infrastructure, often rationalised by the difficult terrain of the region, has worsened the populations access to fundamental services (UNDP, 2006: 16). For example, the town of Edeoha, in the state of Rivers, lacks basic services such as water, education, healthcare and electricity and jobs are hard to come by. There is no local government office in the town, the primary schools lacks chairs and desks, and the nearest hospital, which lacks medicine and equipment, is twenty kilometres away (International Crisis Group, 2006: 17). Analysis above highlights the poor human development of the region. 5. Environmental degradation: Oil exploration and production gas led to environmental damage on many levels: land, water and air pollution, depleted fishing grounds and the disappearance of wetlands (World Bank, 2007b). These environmental changes have had significant implications for local livelihoods, and the alienation of people from their resources and land has led to the inefficient use of resources that remain and poor or inequitable land use practices (UNDP, 2006: 17). Measures to counterbalance environmental damage are inadequate and this is a major focus of community disconten (World Bank, 2007b). 6. Escalating violence and disorder: The democratisation of the means of violence has emerged, as the state has lost monopoly power over the use of force. This violence has emerged in many forms, and exists between communities over host community status, resource and land claims and surveillance contracts; within communities over compensation distribution; between communities and oil companies; and between communities and security forces. The fault lines of these conflicts often coincide with, or are justified in terms of, ethnic differences (World Bank, 2007b). Persistent conflict, while in part a response to the regions poor human development, also serves to entrench it as it is a constant drag on the regions economic performance and opportunities for advancement (UNDP, 2006: 16). 7. A vicious cycle of violence: Conflict has become militarised, with the intensive proliferation of arms, sabotage, hostage taking and the emergence of warlords and youth cults. This process is fuelled by the illegal bunkering of oil fuels (World Bank, 2007b). Since January 2006, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) have been central to this violence (International Crisis Group, 2006:i). 8. Landownership: There is much juridical ambiguity over land rights. While the Land Use Decree of 1978 formally vested all land in State governments, the expropriation of this has never been accepted by the individuals, families and communities that have made customary claims to the land. This has resulted in a double system, and combined with weak judicial systems has resulted in long running conflicts and ambiguity at many levels (World Bank, 2007b). GOVERNMENT POLICY TO REVERT THE SITUATION The marginalisation and poor human development progress of the Niger Delta has not gone unnoticed by successive Nigerian federal governments. Since the late 1950s, the Niger Delta has been recognised as a region requiring special development attention (Osuoka, 2007: 5). A number of special agencies have been created by the federal government to address development in the Niger Delta. These have included the Niger Delta Basin Development Board, established in 1965 and the Oil Minerals Producing Areas Development Commission, established in 1992 (Osuoka, 2007: 5). it established a new body called the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) to offer a lasting solution to the socio-economic difficulties of the Niger Delta Region (UNDP, 2006: 31). In 2006, the NDDC launched the Niger Delta Regional Development Master Plan, which states the development goals and objectives of the Niger Delta. For the foundation phases (2006-2010), the key programmes are the economy, physical infrastructur e, human and institutional resources, human and community needs and natural environment. Focusing on some key elements, these will seek to create an enabling environment for enterprise; improve the functioning of key markets and access to them; increase agricultural (and fisheries) productivity and micro-investment; protect and develop human capabilities; protect natural resources and mitigate harm. (For a summary of the NDDC Master Plan Programs and Areas of Focus, see Annex 1). The NDDC clearly aims to have a redistributory function, with nearly a quarter of the funding coming from the Federal Government 1, with additional contributions expected from oil companies operating in the Niger Delta, the Ecological Fund and States of the delta. Unfortunately, States have yet to contribute to the Commission, and oil companies are still wrangling over how much they should contribute (UNDP, 2006: 31-32). But assessment of development in the Niger Delta since the NDDC was established shows that poverty reduction progress has been slow, particularly given the Niger Deltas substantial natural resource endowments and additional federal government resources. And, as mentioned above, according to UNDP, the worsening of the HDI has been more acute for the Niger Delta states than for the rest of Nigeria (UNDP, 2006: 137). However, we do not really know how effective the NDDC is. We also do not know much about which programme components are more or less effective at achieving the programmes overarching goals. This is a really important data gap, as given the programmes multisectoral nature clearly attributable information about causality would go a long way to telling us which approaches might be best at reducing spatial disparities and regional inequalities. If we look at a range of indicators, we can see how significant the challenge still is. Disaggregated human development indicators pa int a dismal picture. The prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS is among the highest in Nigeria (UNDP, 2006: 17). Energy availability is poor, despite the region providing the United States with one fifth of its energy needs (UNDP, 2006: 25). For example, in Bayelsa State is not linked to the national electric power grid (UNDP, 2006: 110). Similarly, while the delta region has a dense network of freshwater distributaries and vast groundwater reserves, no part of the region has a regular supply of potable water (UNDP, 2006: 110). Some health indicators are below the national average. As Table 3 indicates, the Niger Delta region (South-South) has a higher than average infant mortality rate and the highest post-neonatal mortality rate in Nigeria (UNDP, 2006: 125). The region also fares comparatively poorly in terms of accessing health treatment. For example, only 25.1% of children with acute respiratory infections and fever sought medical treatment from health providers, compared with 49.5% in t he North Central region and 52.6% in the South West region (UNDP, 2006: 123). The South-South zone also had the largest proportion of births attended by traditional attendants (UNDP, 2006:123). Interestingly, in a 2003 NDHS survey, the Niger Delta had the largest proportion (34.8%) of respondents identifying the distance between their residence and health facilities as a major problem. In this same survey, nationally, 30.4% of women cited a lack of money as a barrier to accessing health care. In the Niger Delta, this was 47.1% and the highest regional figure (UNDP, 2006: 125). Additionally, there is an intense feeling among the people of the Niger Delta that they should be doing far better: the Niger Delta has a self-assessment poverty rate of 74.8% (UNDP, 2006: 58) Policy Recommendations The policy recommendations address the issue of regional inequalities and overall national developmentandmodemisation in Nigeria. As we saw during the review, regional imbalance has been perpetuated in the country over time. The result has been the prevailing unwarranted uneven distribution of resources and benefits of development Warranted unevenness is inevitable during the incipient growth and development of any country because of inadequate administrative machinery, lack of clear direction of redistribution mechanisms, non-diversification of the economy and technology and limited employment opportunities for the majority of people. During the early stage of development income development surpluses and even hierarchy of cities are not adequately distributed. However in a country such as Nigeria where development aided by the petro-dollar has proceeded for quite a long time, the perpetual existence of unwarranted inequalities among individuals and regions is unpardonable. Individual and regional equity based on consensual socio-political policies, especially in the form of Acts, is still possible. Attractive socio-political, economic and administrative consensus policy options that are likely to be acceptable to every region and individual will be those which 74 EbenezerAka promote a change that is desirable in its own right: for example, a multicultural po.licy on ethnocentrism, capacity-building, and sustainable self-reliant peoplecentered development. Ethnocentrism has been a major driving force which has fueled and perpetuated regional imbalance in the country over time. For the problems of ethnicity to be ameliorated in the country, a concerted effort by the local, regional and federal governments is needed urgently. The effort will ensure that all references that vilify individuals or incite unwarranted division and unnecessary competition are removed by law from the mass media and other instruments of propaganda (Nnoli, 1978). According to Nnoli the concept of the existing North/South and East! West that mark the social, cultural, historical and ethno-linguistic divisions and affinities for socio-economic development planning should be applied with caution. At times in Nigeria this creates the notion of us versus them. A new set of references is needed which explains the countrys present socioeconomic predicaments. For example the concept of developed and backward or depressed regions stemming from the differences in regional distribution of natural and mineral resources including income, employment and welfare, should replace the North/South and East/West distinction or dichotomy. Moreover, in order to realise a long -term solution, strategies to accommodate the major ethnic groups in the development process should be pursued. For example, the languages and histories of major ethnic groups should be taught in schools for the understanding and appreciation of each other; information for important social services (public or central services) should beprovided in major languages, and the political system and its policy and decision-making apparatus should be representative of multiethnic groups in the country, in order to allay the fears of the minorities. Socioeconomic planning administration, and management based on the new concepts are likely to enhance socio-economic and political equity if constantly pursued over a long period of time. A cogent remedy to regional inequality also lies in the creation of a nationally integrated economy rather than on the creation of mushroom states based on ethnolinguistic sentiments for sharing the national wealth. The suggestion here is a gradual shift of emphasis from the existing centre-down, urban-biased, productioncentred organisation to a sustainable, self-reliant, people-centred developmenL What is actually advocated is a bi-modal or dualistic strategy of development where both paradigms are operative. According to Korten (1984:309) ifpeoplecentred development is to emerge it will bean offspring of the production-centred industrial era. The new paradigm should focus on ruraVregional development based on the community or basic needs approach. The federal government should use its authority to improve the relative and absolute shares of the poor regions or states because the free market mechanism Regional Inequalities in the Process of Nigerias Development 75 does not operate in Nigeria to guarantee the redistribution of the benefits of socioeconomic development. TIle Nigerian market is imperfect, corrupt and not well developed. Distributive measures should be initiated by the government to include: industrial decentralisation by giving priority to lagging regions; job-training programmes as a targeted policy for the poor, the underprivileged and the minorities; and direct income transfers. The aim is to improve on the economic base of those regions, as well as their employment potential and income which will eventually make the local economy richer. The aim of the people-centred or grass-roots approach to rural and regional development is to create a society that is secure and sustainable. Growth which has occurred so far becauseofa production-centredapproach, has not been accompanied by equivalent increase in employment, thereby resulting in individual and regional poverty as well as socioeconomic inequalities. To create jobs and ensure that all share in the benefits of economic growth, government should make markets more people-friendly by: investing more in basic education and worker retraining; ensuring universal access to markets; redesigning credit systems and fISCal incentives to support small-scale 6nterprises and informal employment; and using tax breaks to encourage labour-intensive technology and production in ruraltowns, agro-towns, or small- and intermediate-sized cities (Collins, 1993:4). The new concept focuses on human security based on environmental sustainability, employment, and provision of basic needs. Perhaps, this is what Strong (1993:5) calls, in both environmental and economic terms, eco-industrial revolution. Strong goes on to say that for the government to effect economic sustainability, it will require a fundamental reorientation of policies and budgets, redeployment of resources, and reshaping of the system of incentives and penalties that motivate economic behaviour. In order for the resources to be adequately managed and for long-term economic sustainability to be entrencbed in Nigeria, the federal government should embark on capacity-building. This will enhance the existing management capacity of Nigerian public institutions and private economic agents, and also help provide the much needed top-level managers and policy-makers. Capacity-building willachieve littleinNigeriawithoutpolitical development. TheNigeriangovemment mustdevelopaform of governance thatpermits free expression and full participation in the development process. Participation empowers the local people to take charge of their lives by increasing their potency ,as theiraltemative ideas, social techniques and technologies are released. Political development is likely to create societywide trust and predictability, and foster a stable political order that is the sine qua non for a long economic growth. Without creating more states in Nigeria, which often depends on ethnocentric sentiments, a decentralised administrative structure can be achieved which is capable of providing stability, creativity, and civic 76 EbenezerAka commitment of every Nigerian, and more importantly, capable of reducing regional inequalities. Regional inequalities can bealleviate in terms of administrative decentralisation. The recently created local government areas throughout the country could be strengthened and employed as a seeding agent for local and regional growth, development, and modernisation. There exist today 449 local government areas with their headquarterS or capitals. These capitals Egunjobi (1990:22) calls third-order centres(6). Administrative decentralisation plays an important function in the redistribution process during a deliberate national development effort, especially by strategically locating the headquarters or capitals for the newly created administrative areas. The local government area capitals should be targeted as development and modernisation diffusion agents, and also as the agro-political units for the provision of basic needs using local materials, manpower, and small-scale enterprises. That is, these capitals can be deliberately employed to act as innovation nodes or poles by which growth and modernisation impulses could diffuse or trickle-down to their tributary areas. Inother words, they should provide development stimuli and act as a change agent to their hinterlands or catchment areas. As a process of national urbanisation, socioeconomic and modemisation strategy, administrativedecentralisation sho

Understanding Alzheimers Disease :: Alzheimers Disease Essays

Understanding Alzheimer's Disease Alzheimer's Disease is a progressive and irreversible brain disease that destroys mental and physical functioning in human beings, and invariably leads to death. It is the fourth leading cause of adult death in the United States. Alzheimer's creates emotional and financial catastrophe for many American families every year. Fortunately, a large amount of progress is being made to combat Alzheimer's disease every year. To fully be able to comprehend and combat Alzheimer's disease, one must know what it does to the brain, the part of the human body it most greatly affects. Many Alzheimer's disease sufferers had their brains examined. A large number of differences were present when comparing the normal brain to the Alzheimer's brain. There was a loss of nerve cells from the Cerebral Cortex in the Alzheimer's victim. Approxiately ten percent of the neurons in this region were lost. But a ten percent loss is relatively minor, and cannot account for the severe impairment suffered by Alzheimer's victims. Neurofibrillary Tangles are also found in the brains of Alzheimer's victims. They are found within the cell bodies of nerve cells in the cerebral cortex, and take on the structure of a paired helix. Other diseases that have "paired helixes" include Parkinson's disease, Down's Syndrome, and Dementia Pugilistica. Scientists are not sure how the paired helixes are related in these very different diseases. Neuritic Plaques are patches of clumped material lying outside the bodies of nerve cells in the brain. They are mainly found in the cerebral cortex, but have also been seen in other areas of the brain. At the core of each of these plaques is a substance called amyloid, an abnormal protein not usually found in the brain. This amyloid core is surrounded by cast off fragments of dead or dying nerve cells. The cell fragments include dying mitochondria, presynaptic terminals, and paired helical filaments identical to those that are neurofibrillary tangles. Many neuropathologists think that these plaques are basically clusters of degenerating nerve cells. But they are still not sure of how and why these fragments clustered together. Congophilic Angiopathy is the technical name that neuropathologists have given to an abnormality found in the walls of blood vessels in the brains of victims of Alzheimer's disease. These abnormal patches are similar to the neuritic plaques that develop in Alzheimer's disease, in that amyloid has been found within the blood-vessel walls wherever the patches occur. Another name for these patches is cerebrovascular amyloid,

The Da Vinci Code Chapter 84-86

CHAPTER 84 In a rubbish-strewn alley very close to Temple Church, Remy Legaludec pulled the Jaguar limousine to a stop behind a row of industrial waste bins. Killing the engine, he checked the area. Deserted. He got out of the car, walked toward the rear, and climbed back into the limousine's main cabin where the monk was. Sensing Remy's presence, the monk in the back emerged from a prayer-like trance, his red eyes looking more curious than fearful. All evening Remy had been impressed with this trussed man's ability to stay calm. After some initial struggles in the Range Rover, the monk seemed to have accepted his plight and given over his fate to a higher power. Loosening his bow tie, Remy unbuttoned his high, starched, wing-tipped collar and felt as if he could breathe for the first time in years. He went to the limousine's wet bar, where he poured himself a Smirnoff vodka. He drank it in a single swallow and followed it with a second. Soon I will be a man of leisure. Searching the bar, Remy found a standard service wine-opener and flicked open the sharp blade. The knife was usually employed to slice the lead foil from corks on fine bottles of wine, but it would serve a far more dramatic purpose this morning. Remy turned and faced Silas, holding up the glimmering blade. Now those red eyes flashed fear. Remy smiled and moved toward the back of the limousine. The monk recoiled, struggling against his bonds. â€Å"Be still,† Remy whispered, raising the blade. Silas could not believe that God had forsaken him. Even the physical pain of being bound Silas had turned into a spiritual exercise, asking the throb of his blood-starved muscles to remind him of the pain Christ endured. I have been praying all night for liberation.Now, as the knife descended, Silas clenched his eyes shut. A slash of pain tore through his shoulder blades. He cried out, unable to believe he was going to die here in the back of this limousine, unable to defend himself. I was doing God's work.TheTeacher said he would protect me. Silas felt the biting warmth spreading across his back and shoulders and could picture his own blood, spilling out over his flesh. A piercing pain cut through his thighs now, and he felt the onset of that familiar undertow of disorientation – the body's defense mechanism against the pain. As the biting heat tore through all of his muscles now, Silas clenched his eyes tighter, determined that the final image of his life would not be of his own killer. Instead he pictured a younger Bishop Aringarosa, standing before the small church in Spain†¦ the church that he and Silas had built with their own hands. The beginning of my life. Silas felt as if his body were on fire. â€Å"Take a drink,† the tuxedoed man whispered, his accent French. â€Å"It will help with your circulation.† Silas's eyes flew open in surprise. A blurry image was leaning over him, offering a glass of liquid. A mound of shredded duct tape lay on the floor beside the bloodless knife. â€Å"Drink this,† he repeated. â€Å"The pain you feel is the blood rushing into your muscles.† Silas felt the fiery throb transforming now to a prickling sting. The vodka tasted terrible, but he drank it, feeling grateful. Fate had dealt Silas a healthy share of bad luck tonight, but God had solved it all with one miraculous twist. God has not forsaken me. Silas knew what Bishop Aringarosa would call it. Divine intervention. â€Å"I had wanted to free you earlier,† the servant apologized,† but it was impossible. With the police arriving at Chateau Villette, and then at Biggin Hill airport, this was the first possible moment. You understand, don't you, Silas?† Silas recoiled, startled. â€Å"You know my name?† The servant smiled. Silas sat up now, rubbing his stiff muscles, his emotions a torrent of incredulity, appreciation, and confusion. â€Å"Are you†¦ the Teacher?† Remy shook his head, laughing at the proposition. â€Å"I wish I had that kind of power. No, I am not the Teacher. Like you, I serve him. But the Teacher speaks highly of you. My name is Remy.† Silas was amazed. â€Å"I don't understand. If you work for the Teacher, why did Langdon bring the keystone to your home?† â€Å"Not my home. The home of the world's foremost Grail historian, Sir Leigh Teabing.† â€Å"But you live there. The odds†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Remy smiled, seeming to have no trouble with the apparent coincidence of Langdon's chosen refuge. â€Å"It was all utterly predictable. Robert Langdon was in possession of the keystone, and he needed help. What more logical place to run than to the home of Leigh Teabing? That I happen to live there is why the Teacher approached me in the first place.† He paused. â€Å"How do you think the Teacher knows so much about the Grail?† Now it dawned, and Silas was stunned. The Teacher had recruited a servant who had access to all of Sir Leigh Teabing's research. It was brilliant. â€Å"There is much I have to tell you,† Remy said, handing Silas the loaded Heckler Koch pistol. Then he reached through the open partition and retrieved a small, palm-sized revolver from the glove box. â€Å"But first, you and I have a job to do.† Captain Fache descended from his transport plane at Biggin Hill and listened in disbelief to the Kent chief inspector's account of what had happened in Teabing's hangar. â€Å"I searched the plane myself,† the inspector insisted,† and there was no one inside.† His tone turned haughty. â€Å"And I should add that if Sir Leigh Teabing presses charges against me, I will – â€Å" â€Å"Did you interrogate the pilot?† â€Å"Of course not. He is French, and our jurisdiction requires – â€Å"Take me to the plane.† Arriving at the hangar, Fache needed only sixty seconds to locate an anomalous smear of blood on the pavement near where the limousine had been parked. Fache walked up to the plane and rapped loudly on the fuselage. â€Å"This is the captain of the French Judicial Police. Open the door!† The terrified pilot opened the hatch and lowered the stairs. Fache ascended. Three minutes later, with the help of his sidearm, he had a full confession, including a description of the bound albino monk. In addition, he learned that the pilot saw Langdon and Sophie leave something behind in Teabing's safe, a wooden box of some sort. Although the pilot denied knowing what was in the box, he admitted it had been the focus of Langdon's full attention during the flight to London. â€Å"Open the safe,† Fache demanded. The pilot looked terrified. â€Å"I don't know the combination!† â€Å"That's too bad. I was going to offer to let you keep your pilot's license.† The pilot wrung his hands. â€Å"I know some men in maintenance here. Maybe they could drill it?† â€Å"You have half an hour.† The pilot leapt for his radio. Fache strode to the back of the plane and poured himself a hard drink. It was early, but he had not yet slept, so this hardly counted as drinking before noon. Sitting in a plush bucket seat, he closed his eyes, trying to sort out what was going on. The Kent police's blunder could cost me dearly. Everyone was now on the lookout for a black Jaguar limousine. Fache's phone rang, and he wished for a moment's peace. â€Å"Allo?† â€Å"I'm en route to London.† It was Bishop Aringarosa. â€Å"I'll be arriving in an hour.† Fache sat up. â€Å"I thought you were going to Paris.† â€Å"I am deeply concerned. I have changed my plans.† â€Å"You should not have.† â€Å"Do you have Silas?† â€Å"No. His captors eluded the local police before I landed.† Aringarosa's anger rang sharply. â€Å"You assured me you would stop that plane!† Fache lowered his voice. â€Å"Bishop, considering your situation, I recommend you not test my patience today. I will find Silas and the others as soon as possible. Where are you landing?† â€Å"One moment.† Aringarosa covered the receiver and then came back. â€Å"The pilot is trying to get clearance at Heathrow. I'm his only passenger, but our redirect was unscheduled.† â€Å"Tell him to come to Biggin Hill Executive Airport in Kent. I'll get him clearance. If I'm not here when you land, I'll have a car waiting for you.† â€Å"Thank you.† â€Å"As I expressed when we first spoke, Bishop, you would do well to remember that you are not the only man on the verge of losing everything.† CHAPTER 85 You seek the orb that ought be on his tomb. Each of the carved knights within the Temple Church lay on his back with his head resting on a rectangular stone pillow. Sophie felt a chill. The poem's reference to an† orb† conjured images of the night in her grandfather's basement. Hieros Gamos. The orbs. Sophie wondered if the ritual had been performed in this very sanctuary. The circular room seemed custom-built for such a pagan rite. A stone pew encircled a bare expanse of floor in the middle. A theater in the round, as Robert had called it. She imagined this chamber at night, filled with masked people, chanting by torchlight, all witnessing a† sacred communion† in the center of the room. Forcing the image from her mind, she advanced with Langdon and Teabing toward the first group of knights. Despite Teabing's insistence that their investigation should be conducted meticulously, Sophie felt eager and pushed ahead of them, making a cursory walk-through of the five knights on the left. Scrutinizing these first tombs, Sophie noted the similarities and differences between them. Every knight was on his back, but three of the knights had their legs extended straight out while two had their legs crossed. The oddity seemed to have no relevance to the missing orb. Examining their clothing, Sophie noted that two of the knights wore tunics over their armor, while the other three wore ankle-length robes. Again, utterly unhelpful. Sophie turned her attention to the only other obvious difference – their hand positions. Two knights clutched swords, two prayed, and one had his arms at his side. After a long moment looking at the hands, Sophie shrugged, having seen no hint anywhere of a conspicuously absent orb. Feeling the weight of the cryptex in her sweater pocket, she glanced back at Langdon and Teabing. The men were moving slowly, still only at the third knight, apparently having no luck either. In no mood to wait, she turned away from them toward the second group of knights. As she crossed the open space, she quietly recited the poem she had read so many times now that it was committed to memory. In London lies a knight a Pope interred. His labor's fruit a Holy wrath incurred. You seek the orb that ought be on his tomb. It speaks of Rosy flesh and seeded womb. When Sophie arrived at the second group of knights, she found that this second group was similar to the first. All lay with varied body positions, wearing armor and swords. That was, all except the tenth and final tomb. Hurrying over to it, she stared down. No pillow. No armor. No tunic. No sword. â€Å"Robert? Leigh?† she called, her voice echoing around the chamber. â€Å"There's something missing over here.† Both men looked up and immediately began to cross the room toward her. â€Å"An orb?† Teabing called excitedly. His crutches clicked out a rapid staccato as he hurried across the room. â€Å"Are we missing an orb?† â€Å"Not exactly,† Sophie said, frowning at the tenth tomb. â€Å"We seem to be missing an entire knight.† Arriving beside her both men gazed down in confusion at the tenth tomb. Rather than a knight lying in the open air, this tomb was a sealed stone casket. The casket was trapezoidal, tapered at the feet, widening toward the top, with a peaked lid. â€Å"Why isn't this knight shown?† Langdon asked. â€Å"Fascinating,† Teabing said, stroking his chin. â€Å"I had forgotten about this oddity. It's been years since I was here.† â€Å"This coffin,† Sophie said,† looks like it was carved at the same time and by the same sculptor as the other nine tombs. So why is this knight in a casket rather than in the open?† Teabing shook his head. â€Å"One of this church's mysteries. To the best of my knowledge, nobody has ever found any explanation for it.† â€Å"Hello?† the altar boy said, arriving with a perturbed look on his face. â€Å"Forgive me if this seems rude, but you told me you wanted to spread ashes, and yet you seem to be sightseeing.† Teabing scowled at the boy and turned to Langdon. â€Å"Mr. Wren, apparently your family's philanthropy does not buy you the time it used to, so perhaps we should take out the ashes and get on with it.† Teabing turned to Sophie. â€Å"Mrs. Wren?† Sophie played along, pulling the vellum-wrapped cryptex from her pocket. â€Å"Now then,† Teabing snapped at the boy,† if you would give us some privacy?† The altar boy did not move. He was eyeing Langdon closely now. â€Å"You look familiar.† Teabing huffed. â€Å"Perhaps that is because Mr. Wren comes here every year!† Or perhaps, Sophie now feared, because he saw Langdon on television at the Vatican last year. â€Å"I have never met Mr. Wren,† the altar boy declared. â€Å"You're mistaken,† Langdon said politely. â€Å"I believe you and I met in passing last year. Father Knowles failed to formally introduce us, but I recognized your face as we came in. Now, I realize this is an intrusion, but if you could afford me a few more minutes, I have traveled a great distance to scatter ashes amongst these tombs.† Langdon spoke his lines with Teabing-esque believability. The altar boy's expression turned even more skeptical. â€Å"These are not tombs.† â€Å"I'm sorry?† Langdon said. â€Å"Of course they are tombs,† Teabing declared. â€Å"What are you talking about?† The altar boy shook his head. â€Å"Tombs contain bodies. These are effigies. Stone tributes to real men. There are no bodies beneath these figures.† â€Å"This is a crypt!† Teabing said. â€Å"Only in outdated history books. This was believed to be a crypt but was revealed as nothing of the sort during the 1950 renovation.† He turned back to Langdon. â€Å"And I imagine Mr. Wren would know that. Considering it was his family that uncovered that fact.† An uneasy silence fell. It was broken by the sound of a door slamming out in the annex. â€Å"That must be Father Knowles,† Teabing said. â€Å"Perhaps you should go see?† The altar boy looked doubtful but stalked back toward the annex, leaving Langdon, Sophie, and Teabing to eye one another gloomily. â€Å"Leigh,† Langdon whispered. â€Å"No bodies? What is he talking about?† Teabing looked distraught. â€Å"I don't know. I always thought†¦ certainly, this must be the place. I can't imagine he knows what he is talking about. It makes no sense!† â€Å"Can I see the poem again?† Langdon said. Sophie pulled the cryptex from her pocket and carefully handed it to him. Langdon unwrapped the vellum, holding the cryptex in his hand while he examined the poem. â€Å"Yes, the poem definitely references a tomb.Not an effigy.† â€Å"Could the poem be wrong?† Teabing asked. â€Å"Could Jacques Sauniere have made the same mistake I just did?† Langdon considered it and shook his head. â€Å"Leigh, you said it yourself. This church was built by Templars, the military arm of the Priory. Something tells me the Grand Master of the Priory would have a pretty good idea if there were knights buried here.† Teabing looked flabbergasted. â€Å"But this place is perfect.† He wheeled back toward the knights. â€Å"We must be missing something!† Entering the annex, the altar boy was surprised to find it deserted. â€Å"Father Knowles?† I know Iheard the door, he thought, moving forward until he could see the entryway. A thin man in a tuxedo stood near the doorway, scratching his head and looking lost. The altar boy gave an irritated huff, realizing he had forgotten to relock the door when he let the others in. Now some pathetic sod had wandered in off the street, looking for directions to some wedding from the looks of it. â€Å"I'm sorry,† he called out, passing a large pillar,† we're closed.† A flurry of cloth ruffled behind him, and before the altar boy could turn, his head snapped backward, a powerful hand clamping hard over his mouth from behind, muffling his scream. The hand over the boy's mouth was snow-white, and he smelled alcohol. The prim man in the tuxedo calmly produced a very small revolver, which he aimed directly at the boy's forehead. The altar boy felt his groin grow hot and realized he had wet himself. â€Å"Listen carefully,† the tuxedoed man whispered. â€Å"You will exit this church silently, and you will run. You will not stop. Is that clear?† The boy nodded as best he could with the hand over his mouth. â€Å"If you call the police†¦Ã¢â‚¬  The tuxedoed man pressed the gun to his skin. â€Å"I will find you.† The next thing the boy knew, he was sprinting across the outside courtyard with no plans of stopping until his legs gave out. CHAPTER 86 Like a ghost, Silas drifted silently behind his target. Sophie Neveu sensed him too late. Before she could turn, Silas pressed the gun barrel into her spine and wrapped a powerful arm across her chest, pulling her back against his hulking body. She yelled in surprise. Teabing and Langdon both turned now, their expressions astonished and fearful. â€Å"What†¦ ?† Teabing choked out. â€Å"What did you do to Remy!† â€Å"Your only concern,† Silas said calmly,† is that I leave here with the keystone.† This recovery mission, as Remy had described it, was to be clean and simple: Enter the church, take the keystone, and walk out; no killing, no struggle. Holding Sophie firm, Silas dropped his hand from her chest, down to her waist, slipping it inside her deep sweater pockets, searching. He could smell the soft fragrance of her hair through his own alcohol-laced breath. â€Å"Where is it?† he whispered. The keystone was in her sweater pocket earlier. So where is it now? â€Å"It's over here,† Langdon's deep voice resonated from across the room. Silas turned to see Langdon holding the black cryptex before him, waving it back and forth like a matador tempting a dumb animal. â€Å"Set it down,† Silas demanded. â€Å"Let Sophie and Leigh leave the church,† Langdon replied. â€Å"You and I can settle this.† Silas pushed Sophie away from him and aimed the gun at Langdon, moving toward him. â€Å"Not a step closer,† Langdon said. â€Å"Not until they leave the building.† â€Å"You are in no position to make demands.† â€Å"I disagree.† Langdon raised the cryptex high over his head. â€Å"I will not hesitate to smash this on the floor and break the vial inside.† Although Silas sneered outwardly at the threat, he felt a flash of fear. This was unexpected. He aimed the gun at Langdon's head and kept his voice as steady as his hand. â€Å"You would never break the keystone. You want to find the Grail as much as I do.† â€Å"You're wrong. You want it much more. You've proven you're willing to kill for it.† Forty feet away, peering out from the annex pews near the archway, Remy Legaludec felt a rising alarm. The maneuver had not gone as planned, and even from here, he could see Silas was uncertain how to handle the situation. At the Teacher's orders, Remy had forbidden Silas to fire his gun. â€Å"Let them go,† Langdon again demanded, holding the cryptex high over his head and staring into Silas's gun. The monk's red eyes filled with anger and frustration, and Remy tightened with fear that Silas might actually shoot Langdon while he was holding the cryptex. The cryptex cannot fall! The cryptex was to be Remy's ticket to freedom and wealth. A little over a year ago, he was simply a fifty-five-year-old manservant living within the walls of Chateau Villette, catering to the whims of the insufferable cripple Sir Leigh Teabing. Then he was approached with an extraordinary proposition. Remy's association with Sir Leigh Teabing – the preeminent Grail historian on earth – was going to bring Remy everything he had ever dreamed of in life. Since then, every moment he had spent inside Chateau Villette had been leading him to this very instant. I am so close, Remy told himself, gazing into the sanctuary of the Temple Church and the keystone in Robert Langdon's hand. If Langdon dropped it, all would be lost. Am I willing to show my face? It was something the Teacher had strictly forbidden. Remy was the only one who knew the Teacher's identity. â€Å"Are you certain you want Silas to carry out this task?† Remy had asked the Teacher less than half an hour ago, upon getting orders to steal the keystone. â€Å"I myself am capable.† The Teacher was resolute. â€Å"Silas served us well with the four Priory members. He will recover the keystone. You must remain anonymous. If others see you, they will need to be eliminated, and there has been enough killing already. Do not reveal your face.† My face will change, Remy thought. With what you've promised to pay me, I will become an entirely new man.Surgery could even change his fingerprints, the Teacher had told him. Soon he would be free – another unrecognizable, beautiful face soaking up the sun on the beach. â€Å"Understood,† Remy said. â€Å"I will assist Silas from the shadows.† â€Å"For your own knowledge, Remy,† the Teacher had told him,† the tomb in question is not in the Temple Church. So have no fear. They are looking in the wrong place.† Remy was stunned. â€Å"And you know where the tomb is?† â€Å"Of course. Later, I will tell you. For the moment, you must act quickly. If the others figure out the true location of the tomb and leave the church before you take the cryptex, we could lose the Grail forever.† Remy didn't give a damn about the Grail, except that the Teacher refused to pay him until it was found. Remy felt giddy every time he thought of the money he soon would have. One third oftwenty million euro.Plenty to disappear forever.Remy had pictured the beach towns on the Cà ´te d'Azur, where he planned to live out his days basking in the sun and letting others serve him for a change. Now, however, here in the Temple Church, with Langdon threatening to break the keystone, Remy's future was at risk. Unable to bear the thought of coming this close only to lose it all, Remy made the decision to take bold action. The gun in his hand was a concealable, small-caliber, J-frame Medusa, but it would be plenty deadly at close range. Stepping from the shadows, Remy marched into the circular chamber and aimed the gun directly at Teabing's head. â€Å"Old man, I've been waiting a long time to do this.† Sir Leigh Teabing's heart practically stalled to see Remy aiming a gun at him. What is he doing! Teabing recognized the tiny Medusa revolver as his own, the one he kept locked in the limousine glove box for safety. â€Å"Remy?† Teabing sputtered in shock. â€Å"What is going on?† Langdon and Sophie looked equally dumbstruck. Remy circled behind Teabing and rammed the pistol barrel into his back, high and on the left, directly behind his heart. Teabing felt his muscles seize with terror. â€Å"Remy, I don't – â€Å" â€Å"I'll make it simple,† Remy snapped, eyeing Langdon over Teabing's shoulder. â€Å"Set down the keystone, or I pull the trigger.† Langdon seemed momentarily paralyzed. â€Å"The keystone is worthless to you,† he stammered. â€Å"You cannot possibly open it.† â€Å"Arrogant fools,† Remy sneered. â€Å"Have you not noticed that I have been listening tonight as you discussed these poems? Everything I heard, I have shared with others. Others who know more than you. You are not even looking in the right place. The tomb you seek is in another location entirely!† Teabing felt panicked. What is he saying! â€Å"Why do you want the Grail?† Langdon demanded. â€Å"To destroy it? Before the End of Days?† Remy called to the monk. â€Å"Silas, take the keystone from Mr. Langdon.† As the monk advanced, Langdon stepped back, raising the keystone high, looking fully prepared to hurl it at the floor. â€Å"I would rather break it,† Langdon said, â€Å"than see it in the wrong hands.† Teabing now felt a wave of horror. He could see his life's work evaporating before his eyes. All his dreams about to be shattered. â€Å"Robert, no!† Teabing exclaimed. â€Å"Don't! That's the Grail you're holding! Remy would never shoot me. We've known each other for ten – â€Å" Remy aimed at the ceiling and fired the Medusa. The blast was enormous for such a small weapon, the gunshot echoing like thunder inside the stone chamber. Everyone froze.† I am not playing games,† Remy said. â€Å"The next one is in his back. Hand the keystone to Silas.† Langdon reluctantly held out the cryptex. Silas stepped forward and took it, his red eyes gleaming with the self-satisfaction of vengeance. Slipping the keystone in the pocket of his robe, Silas backed off, still holding Langdon and Sophie at gunpoint. Teabing felt Remy's arm clamp hard around his neck as the servant began backing out of the building, dragging Teabing with him, the gun still pressed in his back. â€Å"Let him go,† Langdon demanded. â€Å"We're taking Mr. Teabing for a drive,† Remy said, still backing up. â€Å"If you call the police, he will die. If you do anything to interfere, he will die. Is that clear?† â€Å"Take me,† Langdon demanded, his voice cracking with emotion. â€Å"Let Leigh go.† Remy laughed. â€Å"I don't think so. He and I have such a nice history. Besides, he still might prove useful.† Silas was backing up now, keeping Langdon and Sophie at gunpoint as Remy pulled Leigh toward the exit, his crutches dragging behind him. Sophie's voice was unwavering. â€Å"Who are you working for?† The question brought a smirk to the departing Remy's face. â€Å"You would be surprised, Mademoiselle Neveu.†

The Behavior Of Human Being Health And Social Care Essay

Methodology is a subject ; study the behaviour of human being in assorted societal scene. Harmonizing to Merton ( 1957 ) methodological analysis is the logic of scientific process. The research is a systematic method of detecting new facts for verifying old facts, their sequence, interrelatedness, insouciant account and natural Torahs that govern them. The scientific methodological analysis is a system of explicit regulations and processs upon which research is based and against which the claim for cognition are evaluated. This subdivision of the survey edifying the description of the survey country, definitions of stuff used methods to accomplish the aims and indispensable parts of the present survey.3.1 Data Collection:The information is collected by carry oning a study so that those factors can be considered which were non available in the infirmary record and were most of import as the hazard factors of hepatitis. The study was conducted in the liver Centre of the DHQ infirmary Faisalabad during the months of February and March 2009. A questionnaire was made for the intent of study and all possible hazard factors were added in it. During the two months the figure of patients that were interviewed was 262. The factors studied in this study are Age, Gender, Education, Marital Status, Area, Hepatitis Type, Profession, Jaundice History, History of Blood Transfusion, History of Surgery, Family History, Smoking, and Diabetes. Most of the factors in this information set are binary and some have more than two classs. Hepatitis type is response variable which has three classs.3.2 Restrictions of Datas:In the outline it was decided to take a complete study on the five types of hepatitis but during the study it was known that hepatitis A is non a unsafe disease and the patients of this disease are non admitted in the infirmary. In this disease patients can be all right after 1 or 2 cheque ups and largely patients do n't cognize that they have this disease and with the transition of clip their disease finished without any side consequence. On the other manus, hepatitis D and E are really rare and really unsafe diseases. HDV can hold growing in the presence of HBV. The patient, who has hepatitis B , can hold hepatitis D but non the other than that. These are really rare instances. During my two months study non a individual patient of hepatitis A, D and E was found. Largely people are enduring from the hepatitis B and C. So now the dependant variable has three classs. Therefore polynomial logistic arrested development theoretical account with a dependant variable holding three classs is made.3.3 Statistical Variables:The word variable is used in statistically oriented literature to bespeak a characteristic or a belongings that is possible to mensurate. When the research worker measures something, he makes a numerical theoretical account of the phenomenon being measured. Measurements of a variable addition their significance from the fact that there exists a alone correspondence between the assigned Numberss and the degrees of the belongings being measured. In the finding of the appropriate statistical analysis for a given set of informations, it is utile to sort variables by type. One method for sorting variables is by the grade of edification evident in the manner they are measured. For illustration, a research worker can mensurate tallness of people harmonizing to whether the top of their caput exceeds a grade on the wall: if yes, they are tall ; and if no, they are short. On the other manus, the research worker can besides mensurate tallness in centimetres or inches. The ulterior technique is a more sophisticated manner of mensurating tallness. As a scientific subject progresss, measurings of the variables with which it deals become more sophisticated. Assorted efforts have been made to formalise variable categorization. A normally recognized system is proposed by Stevens ( 1951 ) . In this system measurings are classified as nominal, ordinal, interval, or ratio graduated tables. In deducing his categorization, Stevens characterized each of the four types by a transmutation that would non alter a measurings categorization.Table 3.1 Steven ‘s Measurement SystemType of Measurement Basic empirical operation Examples Nominal Determination of equality of classs. Religion, Race, Eye colour, Gender, etc. Ordinal Determination of greater than or less than ( ranking ) . Rating of pupils, Ranking of the BP as low, medium, high etc. Time interval Determination of equality of differences between degrees. Temperature etc. Ratio Determination of equality of ratios of degrees. Height, Weight, etc. Variable of the survey are of categorical in nature and holding nominal and ordinal type of measuring.3.4 Variables of Analysis:Since the chief focal point of this survey is on the association of different hazard factors with the presence of HBV and HCV. Therefore, the person in the informations were loosely classified into three groups. This categorization is based on whether an person is a bearer of HBV, HCV or None of these. Following table explains this categorization.Table 3.2 Categorization of PersonsNo.SampleHepatitisPercentageI 100 No 38.2 Two 19 HBV 7.3 Three 143 HCV 54.6 Entire 262— –1003.4.1 Categorization of Predictor Variables:Nominal type variables and cryptography is: Sexual activity Male: 1 Female: 2 Area Urban: 1 Rural: 2 Marital Status Single: 1 Married: 2 Hepatitis Type No: 1 B: 2 C: 3 Profession: No:1 Farmer:2 Factory:3 Govt. :4 5: Shop Keeper Jaundice Yes: 1 No: 2 History Blood Transfusion Yes: 1 No: 2 History Surgery Yes: 1 No 2 Family History Yes: 1 No: 2 Smoking Yes: 1 No: 2 Diabetess Yes: 1 No: 2 Ordinal type variable and cryptography is: Age 11 to 20: 1 21 to 30: 2 31 to 40: 3 41 to 50: 4 51 to 60: 5 Education: Primary: 1 Middle: 2 Metric: 3 Fas: 4 BA: 5 University: 63.5 Statistical Analysis:The appropriate statistical analysis techniques to accomplish the aims of the survey include frequence distribution, per centums and eventuality tabular arraies among the of import variables. In multivariate analysis, comparing of Logistic Regression and Classification trees is made. The statistical bundle SPSS was used for the intent of analysis.3.6 Logistic Arrested development:Logistic arrested development is portion of statistical theoretical accounts called generalised additive theoretical accounts. This broad category of theoretical accounts includes ordinary arrested development and analysis of discrepancy, every bit good as multivariate statistics such as analysis of covariance and Loglinear arrested development. A enormous intervention of generalised additive theoretical accounts is presented in Agresti ( 1996 ) . Logistic arrested development analysis surveies the relationship between a categorical response variable and a set of independent ( explanatory ) variables. The name logistic arrested development is frequently used when the dependant variable has merely two values. The name multiple-group logistic arrested development ( MGLR ) is normally reserved for the instance when the response variable has more than two alone values. Multiple-group logistic arrested development is sometimes called polynomial logistic arrested development, polytomous logistic arrested development, polychotomous logistic arrested development, or nominal logistic arrested development. Although the information construction is different from that of multiple arrested developments, the practical usage of the process is similar. Logistic arrested development competes with discriminant analysis as a method for analysing distinct dependent variables. In fact, the current esthesis among many statisticians is that logistic arrested development is more adaptable and superior for most state of affairss than is discriminant analysis because logistic arrested development does non presume that the explanatory variables are usually distributed while discriminant analysis does. Discriminant analysis can be used merely in instance of uninterrupted explanatory variables. Therefore, in cases where the forecaster variables are categorical, or a mixture of uninterrupted and categorical variables, logistic arrested development is preferred. Provided logistic arrested development theoretical account does non affect determination trees and is more similar to nonlinear arrested development such as suiting a multinomial to a set of informations values.3.6.1 The Logit and Logistic Transformations:In multiple arrested development, a mathematical theoretical account of a set of explanatory variables is used to foretell the mean of the dependant variable. In logistic arrested development, a mathematical theoretical account of a set of explanatory variable is used to foretell a transmutation of the dependant variable. This is logit transmutation. Suppose the numerical values of 0 and 1 are assigned to the two classs of a binary variable. Often, 0 represents a negative response and a 1 represents a positive response. The mean of this variable will be the proportion of positive responses. Because of this, we might seek to pattern the relationship between the chance ( proportion ) of a positive response and explanatory variable. If P is the proportion of observations with a response of 1, so 1-p is the chance of a response of 0. The ratio p/ ( 1-p ) is called the odds and the logit is the logarithm of the odds, or merely log odds. Mathematically, the logit transmutation is written as The following tabular array shows the logit for assorted values of P.Table 3.3 Logit for Various Values of PPhosphorusLogit ( P )PhosphorusLogit ( P )0.001 -6.907 0.999 6.907 0.010 -4.595 0.990 4.595 0.05 -2.944 0.950 2.944 0.100 -2.197 0.900 2.197 0.200 -1.386 0.800 1.386 0.300 -0.847 0.700 0.847 0.400 -0.405 0.600 0.405 0.500 0.000— —— —Note that while P ranges between zero and one, the logit scopes between subtraction and plus eternity. Besides note that the nothing logit occurs when P is 0.50. The logistic transmutation is the opposite of the logit transmutation. It is written as3.6.2 The Log Odds Transformation:The difference between two log odds can be used to compare two proportions, such as that of males versus females. Mathematically, this difference is written This difference is frequently referred to as the log odds ratio. The odds ratio is frequently used to compare proportions across groups. Note that the logistic transmutation is closely related to the odds ratio. The contrary relationship is3.7 The Multinomial Logistic Regression and Logit Model:In multiple-group logistic arrested development, a distinct dependant variable Y holding G alone values is a regressed on a set of p independent variables. Y represents a manner of partitioning the population of involvement. For illustration, Y may be presence or absence of a disease, status after surgery, a matrimonial position. Since the names of these dividers are arbitrary, refer to them by back-to-back Numberss. Y will take on the values 1, 2, aˆÂ ¦ , G. Let The logistic arrested development theoretical account is given by the G equations Here, is the chance that an single with values is in group g. That is, Normally ( that is, an intercept is included ) , but this is non necessary. The quantities represent the anterior chances of group rank. If these anterior chances are assumed equal, so the term becomes zero and drops out. If the priors are non assumed equal, they change the values of the intercepts in the logistic arrested development equation. The arrested development coefficients for the mention group set to zero. The pick of the mention group is arbitrary. Normally, it is the largest group or a control group to which the other groups are to be compared. This leaves G-1 logistic arrested development equations in the polynomial logistic arrested development theoretical account. are population arrested development coefficients that are to be estimated from the informations. Their estimations are represented by B ‘s. The represents the unknown parametric quantities, while the B ‘s are their estimations. These equations are additive in the logits of p. However, in footings of the chances, they are nonlinear. The corresponding nonlinear equations are Since =1 because all of its arrested development coefficients are zero. Frequently, all of these theoretical accounts referred to as logistic arrested development theoretical accounts. However, when the independent variables are coded as ANOVA type theoretical accounts, they are sometimes called logit theoretical accounts. can be interpreted as that This shows that the concluding value is the merchandise of its single footings.3.7.1 Solving the Likelihood Equation:To better notation, allow The likeliness for a sample of N observations is so given by where is one if the observation is in group g and zero otherwise. Using the fact that =1, the likeliness, L, is given by Maximal likeliness estimations of are found by happening those values that maximize this log likeliness equation. This is accomplished by ciphering the partial derived functions and so equates them to zero. The ensuing likeliness equations are For g = 1, 2, aˆÂ ¦ , G and k = 1, 2, aˆÂ ¦ , p. Actually, since all coefficients are zero for g=1, the scope of g is from 2 to G. Because of the nonlinear nature of the parametric quantities, there is no closed-form solution to these equations and they must be solved iteratively. The Newton-Raphson method as described in Albert and Harris ( 1987 ) is used to work out these equations. This method makes usage of the information matrix, , which is formed from the 2nd partial derived function. The elements of the information matrix are given by The information matrix is used because the asymptotic covariance matrix is equal to the opposite of the information matrix, i.e. This covariance matrix is used in the computation of assurance intervals for the arrested development coefficients, odds ratios, and predicted chances.3.7.2 Interpretation of Regression Coefficients:The reading of the estimated arrested development coefficients is non easy as compared to that in multiple arrested development. In polynomial logistic arrested development, non merely is the relationship between X and Y nonlinear, but besides, if the dependant variable has more than two alone values, there are several arrested development equations. See the simple instance of a binary response variable, Y, and one explanatory variable, X. Assume that Y is coded so it takes on the values 0 and 1. In this instance, the logistic arrested development equation is Now consider impact of a unit addition in X. The logistic arrested development equation becomes We can insulate the incline by taking the difference between these two equations. We have That is, is the log of the odds at X+1 and X. Removing the logarithm by exponentiating both sides gives The arrested development coefficient is interpreted as the log of the odds ratio comparing the odds after a one unit addition in X to the original odds. Note that, unlike the multiple arrested developments, the reading of depends on the peculiar value of X since the chance values, the P ‘s, will change for different X.3.7.3 Binary Independent Variable:When Ten can take on merely two values, say 0 and 1, the above reading becomes even simpler. Since there are merely two possible values of X, there is a alone reading for given by the log of the odds ratio. In mathematical term, the significance of is so To wholly understand, we must take the logarithm of the odds ratio. It is hard to believe in footings of logarithms. However, we can retrieve that the log of one is zero. So a positive value of indicates that the odds of the numerator are big while a negative value indicates that the odds of the denominator are larger. It is probability easiest to believe in footings of instead than a, because is the odds ratio while is the log of the odds ratio.3.7.4 Multiple Independent Variables:When there are multiple independent variables, the reading of each arrested development coefficient more hard, particularly if interaction footings are included in the theoretical account. In general nevertheless, the arrested development coefficient is interpreted the same as above, except that the caution ‘holding all other independent variables changeless ‘ must be added. That is, can the values of this independent variable be increased by one without altering any of the other variables. If it can, so the reading is as earlier. If non, so some type of conditional statement must be added that histories for the values of the other variables.3.7.5 Polynomial Dependent Variable:When the dependant variable has more than two values, there will be more than one arrested development equation. Infect, the figure of arrested development equation is equal to one less than the figure of categories in dependent variables. This makes reading more hard because there is several arrested development coefficients associated with each independent variable. In this instance, attention must be taken to understand what each arrested development equation is anticipation. Once this is understood, reading of each of the k-1 arrested development coefficients for each variable can continue as above. For illustration, dependant variable has three classs A, B and C. Two arrested development equations will be generated matching to any two of these index variables. The value that is non used is called the mention class value. As in this instance C is taken as mention class, the arrested development equations would be The two coefficients for in these equations, , give the alteration in the log odds of A versus C and B versus C for a one unit alteration in, severally.3.7.6 Premises:On logistic arrested development the existent limitation is that the result should be distinct. One-dimensionality in the logit i.e. the logistic arrested development equation should be additive related with the logit signifier of the response variable. No outliers Independence of mistakes. No Multicollinearity.3.8 Categorization Trees:To foretell the rank of each category or object in instance of categorical response variable on the footing of one or more forecaster variables categorization trees are used. The flexibleness ofA categorization trees makes them a really dramatic analysis choice, but it can non be said that their usage is suggested to the skip of more traditional techniques. The traditional methods should be preferred, in fact, when the theoretical and distributional premises of these methods are fulfilled. But as an option, or as a technique of last option when traditional methods fail, A categorization treesA are, in the sentiment of many research workers, unsurpassed.The survey and usage ofA categorization treesA are non prevailing in the Fieldss of chance and statistical theoretical account sensing ( Ripley, 1996 ) , butA categorization treesA are by and large used in applied Fieldss as in medical specialty for diagnosing, computing machine scientific discipline to measure informations constructions, vegetation for categorization, and in psychological science for doing determination theory.A Classification trees thirstily provide themselves to being displayed diagrammatically, functioning to do them easy to construe. Several tree turning algorithms are available. In this survey three algorithms are used CART ( Classification and Regression Tree ) , CHAID ( Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection ) , and QUEST ( Quick Unbiased Efficient Statistical Tree ) .3.9 CHAID Algorithm:The CHAID ( Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection ) algorithm is originally proposed by Kass ( 1980 ) . CHAID algorithm allows multiple splits of a node. This algorithm merely accepts nominal or ordinal categorical forecasters. When forecasters are uninterrupted, they are transformed into ordinal forecasters before utilizing this algorithm It consists of three stairss: meeting, splitting and fillet. A tree is grown by repeatedly utilizing these three stairss on each node get downing organize the root node.3.9.1. Merging:For each explanatory variable Ten, unify non-significant classs. If X is used to divide the node, each concluding class of X will ensue in one kid node. Adjusted p-value is besides calculated in the confluent measure and this P value is to be used in the measure of splitting. If there is merely one class in X, so halt the process and set the adjusted p-value to be 1. If X has 2 classs, the adjusted p-value is computed for the merged classs by using Bonferroni accommodations. Otherwise, happen the sensible brace of classs of X ( a sensible brace of classs for ordinal forecaster is two next classs, and for nominal forecaster is any two classs ) that is least significantly different ( i.e. more similar ) . The most kindred brace is the brace whose trial statistic gives the highest p-value with regard to the response variable Y. For the brace holding the highest p-value, look into if its p-value is larger than significance-level. If it is larger than significance degree, this brace is merged into a individual compound class. Then a new set of classs of that explanatory variable is formed. If the freshly created compound class consists of three or more original classs, so happen the best binary split within the compound class for which p-value is the smallest. Make this binary split if its p-value is non greater than significance degree. The adjusted p-value is computed for the merged classs by using Bonferroni accommodation. Any class holding excessively few observations is merged with the most likewise other class as measured by the largest of the p-value. The adjusted p-value is computed for the merged classs by using Bonferroni accommodation.3.9.2. Splitting:The best split for each explanatory variable is found in the measure of unifying. The rending measure selects which predictor to be used to outdo split the node. Choice is accomplished by comparing the adjusted p-value associated with each forecaster. The adjusted p-value is obtained in the confluent measure. Choose the independent variable that has minimum adjusted p-value ( i.e. most important ) . If this adjusted p-value is less than or equal to a user-specified alpha-level, split the node utilizing this forecaster. Else, do non divide and the node is considered as a terminal node.3.9.3. Fillet:The stopping measure cheques if the tree turning procedure should be stopped harmonizing to the following fillet regulations. If a node becomes pure ; that is, all instances in a node have indistinguishable values of the dependant variable, the node will non be split. If all instances in a node have indistinguishable values for each forecaster, the node will non be split. If the current tree deepness reaches the user specified maximal tree deepness bound value, the tree turning procedure will halt. If the size of a node is less than the user-specified minimal node size value, the node will non be split. If the split of a node consequences in a kid node whose node size is less than the user-specified minimal kid node size value, child nodes that have excessively few instances ( as compared with this lower limit ) will unify with the most similar kid node as measured by the largest of the p-values. However, if the ensuing figure of child nodes is 1, the node will non be split.3.9.4 P-Value Calculation in CHAID:Calculations of ( unadjusted ) p-values in the above algorithms depend on the type of dependent variable. The confluent measure of CHAID sometimes needs the p-value for a brace of X classs, and sometimes needs the p-value for all the classs of X. When the p-value for a brace of X classs is needed, merely portion of informations in the current node is relevant. Let D denote the relevant information. Suppose in D, X has I classs and Y ( if Y is categorical ) has J classs. The p-value computation utilizing informations in D is given below. If the dependant variable Y is nominal categorical, the void hypothesis of independency of X and Y is tested. To execute the trial, a eventuality ( or count ) tabular array is formed utilizing categories of Y as columns and classs of the forecaster X as rows. The expected cell frequences under the void hypothesis are estimated. The ascertained and the expected cell frequences are used to cipher the Pearson chi-squared statistic or to cipher the likeliness ratio statistic. The p-value is computed based on either one of these two statistics. The Pearson ‘s Chi-square statistic and likeliness ratio statistic are, severally, Where is the ascertained cell frequence and is the estimated expected cell frequence, is the amount of ith row, is the amount of jth column and is the expansive sum. The corresponding p-value is given by for Pearson ‘s Chi-square trial or for likeliness ratio trial, where follows a chi-squared distribution with d.f. ( J-1 ) ( I-1 ) .3.9.5 Bonferroni Adjustments:The adjusted p-value is calculated as the p-value times a Bonferroni multiplier. The Bonferroni multiplier adjusts for multiple trials. Suppose that a forecaster variable originally has I classs, and it is reduced to r classs after the confluent stairss. The Bonferroni multiplier B is the figure of possible ways that I classs can be merged into R classs. For r=I, B=1. For use the undermentioned equation.3.10 QUEST Algorithm:QUEST is proposed by Loh and Shih ( 1997 ) as a Quick, Unbiased, Efficient, Statistical Tree. It is a tree-structured categorization algorithm that yields a binary determination tree. A comparing survey of QUEST and other algorithms was conducted by Lim et Al ( 2000 ) . The QUEST tree turning procedure consists of the choice of a split forecaster, choice of a split point for the selected forecaster, and halting. In QUEST algorithm, univariate splits are considered.3.10.1 Choice of a Split Forecaster:For each uninterrupted forecaster X, execute an ANOVA F trial that trials if all the different categories of the dependant variable Y have the same mean of X, and cipher the p-value harmonizing to the F statistics. For each categorical forecaster, execute a Pearson ‘s chi-square trial of Y and X ‘s independency, and cipher the p-value harmonizing to the chi-square statistics. Find the forecaster with the smallest p-value and denote it X* . If this smallest p-value is less than I ± / M, where I ± ( 0,1 ) is a degree of significance and M is the entire figure of forecaster variables, forecaster X* is selected as the split forecaster for the node. If non, travel to 4. For each uninterrupted forecaster X, compute a Levene ‘s F statistic based on the absolute divergence of Ten from its category mean to prove if the discrepancies of X for different categories of Y are the same, and cipher the p-value for the trial. Find the forecaster with the smallest p-value and denote it as X** . If this smallest p-value is less than I ±/ ( M + M1 ) , where M1 is the figure of uninterrupted forecasters, X** is selected as the split forecaster for the node. Otherwise, this node is non split.3.10.1.1 Pearson ‘s Chi-Square Trial:Suppose, for node T, there are Classs of dependent variable Yttrium. The Pearson ‘s Chi-Square statistic for a categorical forecaster Ten with classs is given by3.10.2 Choice of the Split Point:At a node, suppose that a forecaster variable Ten has been selected for dividing. The following measure is to make up one's mind the split point. If X is a uninterrupted forecaster variable, a split point vitamin D in the split Xa†°Ã‚ ¤d is to be determined. If X is a nominal categorical forecaster variable, a subset K of the set of all values taken by X in the split XK is to be determined. The algorithm is as follows. If the selected forecaster variable Ten is nominal and with more than two classs ( if X is binary, the split point is clear ) , QUEST foremost transforms it into a uninterrupted variable ( name it I? ) by delegating the largest discriminant co-ordinates to classs of the forecaster. QUEST so applies the split point choice algorithm for uninterrupted forecaster on I? to find the split point.3.10.2.1 Transformation of a Categorical Predictor into a Continuous Forecaster:Let X be a nominal categorical forecaster taking values in the set Transform X into a uninterrupted variable such that the ratio of between-class to within-class amount of squares of is maximized ( the categories here refer to the categories of dependent variable ) . The inside informations are as follows. Transform each value ten of X into an I dimensional silent person vector, where Calculate the overall and category J mean of V. where N is a specific instance in the whole sample, frequence weight associated with instance N, is the entire figure of instances and is the entire figure of instances in category J. Calculate the undermentioned IA-I matrices. Perform individual value decomposition on T to obtain where Q is an IA-I extraneous matrix, such that Let where if 0 otherwise. Perform individual value decomposition on to obtain its eigenvector which is associated with its largest characteristic root of a square matrix. The largest discriminant co-ordinate of V is the projection3.10.3 Fillet:The stopping measure cheques if the tree turning procedure should be stopped harmonizing to the following fillet regulations. If a node becomes pure ; that is, all instances belong to the same dependant variable category at the node, the node will non be split. If all instances in a node have indistinguishable values for each forecaster, the node will non be split. If the current tree deepness reaches the user-specified maximal tree deepness bound value, the tree turning procedure will halt. If the size of a node is less than the user-specified minimal node size value, the node will non be split. If the split of a node consequences in a kid node whose node size is less than the user-specified minimal kid node size value, the node will non be split.3.11 CART Algorithm:Categorization and Regression Tree ( C & A ; RT ) or ( CART ) is given by Breiman et Al ( 1984 ) . CART is a binary determination tree that is constructed by dividing a node into two kid nodes repeatedly, get downing with the root node that contains the whole acquisition sample. The procedure of ciphering categorization and arrested development trees can be involved four basic stairss: Specification of Criteria for Predictive Accuracy Split Selection Stoping Right Size of the Tree A3.11.1 Specification of Criteria for Predictive Accuracy:The categorization and arrested development trees ( C & A ; RT ) algorithms are normally aimed at accomplishing the greatest possible prognostic truth. The anticipation with the least cost is defined as most precise anticipation. The construct of costs was developed to generalise, to a wider scope of anticipation state of affairss, the idea that the best anticipation has the minimal misclassification rate. In the bulk of applications, the cost is measured in the signifier of proportion of misclassified instances, or discrepancy. In this context, it follows, hence, that a anticipation would be considered best if it has the lowest misclassification rate or the smallest discrepancy. The demand of minimising costs arises when some of the anticipations that fail are more catastrophic than others, or the failed anticipations occur more frequently than others.3.11.1.1 Priors:In the instance of a qualitative res ponse ( categorization job ) , costs are minimized in order to minimise the proportion of misclassification when priors are relative to the size of the category and when for every category costs of misclassification are taken to be equal. The anterior chances those are used in minimising the costs of misclassification can greatly act upon the categorization of objects. Therefore, attention has to be taken for utilizing the priors. Harmonizing to general construct, to set the weight of misclassification for each class the comparative size of the priors should be used. However, no priors are required when one is constructing a arrested development tree.3.11.1.2 Misclassification Costss:Sometimes more accurate categorization of the response is required for a few categories than others for grounds non related to the comparative category sizes. If the decisive factor for prognostic truth is Misclassification costs, so minimising costs would amount to minimising the proportion of misclassification at the clip priors are taken relative to the size of categories and costs of misclassification are taken to be the same for every category. A3.11.2 Split Choice:The following cardinal measure in categorization and arrested develop ment trees ( CART ) is the choice of splits on the footing of explanatory variables, used to foretell rank in instance of the categorical response variables, or for the anticipation uninterrupted response variable. In general footings, the plan will happen at each node the split that will bring forth the greatest betterment in prognostic truth. This is normally measured with some type of node dross step, which gives an indicant of the homogeneousness of instances in the terminal nodes. If every instance in each terminal node illustrate equal values, so node dross is smallest, homogeneousness is maximum, and anticipation is ideal ( at least for the instances those were used in the computations ; prognostic cogency for new instances is of class a different affair ) . In simple words it can be said that Necessitate a step of dross of a node to assist make up one's mind on how to divide a node, or which node to divide The step should be at a upper limit when a node is every bit divided amongst all categories The dross should be zero if the node is all one category3.11.2.1 Measures of Impurity:There are many steps of dross but following are the good known steps. Misclassification Rate Information, or Information Gini Index In pattern the misclassification rate is non used because state of affairss can happen where no split improves the misclassification rate and besides the misclassification rate can be equal when one option is clearly better for the following measure.3.11.2.2 Measure of Impurity of a Node:Achieves its upper limit at ( , ,aˆÂ ¦ , ) = ( , ,aˆÂ ¦ , ) Achieves its lower limit ( normally zero ) when one = 1, for some I, and the remainder are zero. ( pure node ) Symmetrical map of ( , ,aˆÂ ¦ , )Gini index:I ( T ) = = 1 –Information:3.11.2.3 To Make a Split at a Node:See each variable, ,aˆÂ ¦ , Find the split for that gives the greatest decrease in Gini index for dross i.e. maximise ( 1 – ) – make this for j=1,2, aˆÂ ¦ , P Use the variables that gives the best split, If cost of misclassification are unequal, CART chooses a split to obtain the biggest decrease in I ( T ) = C ( one | J ) = [ C ( one | J ) + C ( j | I ) ] priors can be incorporated into the costs )3.11.3 Fillet:In chief, splitting could go on until all instances are absolutely classified or predicted. However, this would n't do much sense since one would probably stop up with a tree construction that is as complex and â€Å" boring † as the original informations file ( with many nodes perchance incorporating individual observations ) , and that would most likely non be really utile or accurate for foretelling new observations. What is required is some sensible fillet regulation. Two methods can be used to maintain a cheque on the splitting procedure ; viz. Minimum N and Fraction of objects.3.11.3.1 Minimal N:To make up one's mind about the fillet of the splits, splitting is permitted to go on until all the terminal nodes are pure or they are more than a specified figure of objects in the terminal node.3.11.3.2 Fraction of Objects:Another manner to make up one's mind about the fillet of the spli ts, splitting is permitted to go on until all the terminal nodes are pure or there are a specified smallest fraction of the size of one ore more classs in the response variable. For categorization jobs, if the priors are tantamount and category sizes are same as good, so we will halt splitting when all terminal nodes those have more than one class, have no more instances than the defined fraction of the size of class for one or more classs. On the other manus, if the priors which are used in the analysis are non equal, one would halt splitting when all terminal nodes for which two or more categories have no more instances than defined fraction for one or more categories ( Loh and Vanichestakul, 1988 ) .3.11.4 Right Size of the Tree:The majority of a tree in the C & A ; RT ( categorization and arrested development trees ) analysis is an of import affair, since an unreasonably big tree makes the reading of consequences more complicated. Some generalisations can be presented about what constitutes the accurate size of the tree. It should be adequately complex to depict for the acknowledged facts, but it should be every bit easy as possible. It should use inform ation that increases prognostic truth and pay no attending to information that does non. It should demo the manner to the larger apprehension of the phenomena. One attack is to turn the tree up to the right size, where the size is specify by the user, based on the information from anterior research, analytical information from earlier analyses, or even perceptual experience. The other attack is to utilize a set of well-known, structured processs introduced by Breiman et Al. ( 1984 ) for the choice of right size of the tree. These processs are non perfect, as Breiman et Al. ( 1984 ) thirstily acknowledge, but at least they take subjective sentiment out of the procedure to choose the right-sized tree. A There are some methods to halt the splitting.3.11.4.1 Test Sample Cross-Validation:The most preferable sort of cross-validation is the trial sample cross-validation. In this kind of cross-validation, the tree is constructed from the larning sample, and trial sample is used to look into the prognostic truth of this tree. If test sample costs go beyond the costs for the acquisition sample, so this is an indicant of hapless cross-validation. In this instance, some other sized tree may cross-validate healthier. The trial samples and larning samples can be made by taking two independent informations sets, if a larger learning sample is gettable, by reserving a randomly chosen proportion ( say one 3rd or one half ) of the instances for utilizing as the trial sample. A Split the N units in the preparation sample into V- groups of â€Å" equal † size. ( V=10 ) Construct a big tree and prune for each set of V-1 groups. Suppose group V is held out and a big tree is built from the combined informations in the other V-1 groups. Find the â€Å" best † subtree for sorting the instances in group V. Run each instance in group V down the tree and calculate the figure that are misclassified. R ( T ) = R ( T ) + Number of nodes in tree T Complexity parametric quantity Number misclassified With tree T Find the â€Å" weakest † node and snip off all subdivisions formed by dividing at that node. ( examine each non terminal node ) I ) Check each brace of terminal nodes and prune if 13S 3 F Number misclassified at node T = 3 7 S 3 F 6 S 0 F=0 = 3 13S 3 F so do a terminal node. two ) Find the following â€Å" weakest † node. For the t-th node compute R ( T ) = R ( T ) + Number of nodes at or below node T Number misclassified If all subdivisions from node T are kept R ( T ) = = R ( T ) should snip if R ( T ) R ( T ) this occurs when at each non terminal node compute the smallest value of such that the node with the smallest such is the weakest node and all subdivisions below it should be pruned off. It so becomes a terminal node. Produce a sequence of trees this is done individually for V= 1,2, aˆÂ ¦ , V.3.11.4.2 V-fold Cross-Validation:The 2nd type of cross-validation is V-fold cross-validation. This type of cross-validation is valuable when trial sample is non available and the acquisition sample is really little that test sample can non be taken from it. The figure of random bomber samples are determined by the user specified value ( called ‘v ‘ value ) for V-fold cross proof. These sub samples are made from the acquisition samples and they should be about equal in size. A tree of the specified size is calculated ‘v ‘ A times, each clip go forthing out one of the bomber samples from the calculations, and utilizing that sub sample as a trial sample for cross-validation, with the purpose that each bomber sample is considered ( 5 – 1 ) times within the learning sample and merely one time as the trial sample. The cross proof costs, calculated for all ‘v ‘ trial samples, are averaged to show the v-fold estimation of the cross proof costs.